MLB Picks April 4

The first weekend of baseball is over, and weird things are happening. The Orioles swept the Rays. The Red Sox are 0-3. The Rangers are on pace to hit 594 home runs this year. On that note, here are my gambling picks for today.

Tigers (+117) at Orioles (-127)

The Orioles just swept Tampa Bay in Tampa. They seem to have picked up where they left off at the end of the season. The Tigers just won a big game in NY. At the start of the season, this matchup would have favored the Tigers. Now it is just too close. Stay away.

Twins (+149) at Yankees (-159)

The Twins are visiting Yankee Stadium. We all know what that means. Pick the Yanks.

Mariners (+146) at Rangers (-156)

The Rangers just swept the Bo Sox. Unless you're crazy, you agree that the Mariners aren't nearly as good as Boston. Pick the Rangers.

April 1 - MLB Picks

Opening Day was a success! 2 for 2 - and if you're not into the American League there were some fantastic NL games (see MIL @ CIN). Tomorrow begins the season for everyone who didn't play today. Here is a look at tomorrow's games.

White Sox (-110) at Indians (-110)

The White Sox are the better team. With Buerhle on the mound and the same odds for either team, pick the Sox.

Red Sox (-125) at Rangers (+105)

The Red Sox are supposed to dominate. The Rangers are playing at home for the first time since their trip to the World Series. There's no clear favorite. Stay away.

Twins (+115) at Blue Jays (-135)

The Twins are the better team. They may be on the road, but they're opening with Carl Pavano who had a great spring (although it was only good at the end). Pick the Twins.

Orioles (+170) at Rays (-200)

The Orioles finished strong last year, but they're playing at Tampa Bay. Oh, and the Rays have David Price on the mound... The odds aren't pleasant, but it's difficult to pick against Price. Take the Rays if you're up for the risk.

Angels (-150) at Royals (+130)

The Royals lost at home on opening day. And no one is surprised. Sorry Kansas City fans, but don't expect anything to change this year. Pick the Angels.

Mariners (even) at Athletics (-110)

The Mariners have no offense. NONE. Felix might be on the mound, but there's a reason why he didn't win many games last year... The A's have a stellar pitching staff. Expect the A's to win 1-0.

AL Picks - Opening Day

Tomorrow is Opening Day! And there are only two games in the American League. If you're into gambling (or just a baseball fan excited for tomorrow), here's a quick introduction to tomorrow's games.

Detroit (+125) at Yankees (-145)

This game will be a close one. Verlander will be on the mound for the Tigers as Detroit comes off of a very nice spring. But the Yankees are putting up Sabathia. Oh, and it's Opening Day baseball at Yankee Stadium. Yankees have the edge.

Angels (-145) at Royals (+125)

The Angels and the Royals both played well in spring, but when it comes to opening day rosters, the Angels have the easy edge. Don't expect a low scoring game. Pick the Angels.

American League - Postseason Picks

Tomorrow the regular season begins. I thought I'd give some last thoughts before the season in the form of playoff picks. In the West, Texas will prevail. In the East, the Red Sox will come out on top. In the Central, the Twins will stay champs. The White Sox will win the Wild Card, with the A's close behind. Regardless, the Wild Card team will have to face the Red Sox, a bit of a scary task.

Division Series: White Sox (4) v. Red Sox (1)

This one's easy. In the battle between the Sox, the Red will prevail. The Red Sox are a perennially dominant team, and no one has added more talent this offseason than they have. The Red Sox will wrap this one up in 4.

Division Series: Texas (3) v. Twins (2)

The Twins will get home-field advantage by virtue of only having one other good team in their division. Look for them to break out of their postseason slump and surprise the reigning AL Champs. This one won't be easy though. Twins in 5.

ALCS: Twins (2) v. Boston (1)

And now for the choke. No one does it better than MN in the postseason. The games will be close, but the series won't be. Minnesota doesn't do so well against the AL East, and I just don't see that changing. Boston in 5.

That's about all - if you want to see some national league picks, turn to this blog. I won't be picking the NL, or the World Series. It's a little early for that anyway. Feel free to leave comments, and let me know who you think will win!

Happy Opening Day!

Division Picks Part III

The Twins will win the Central, the Red Sox will win the East, and the West will go to Texas. I've already provided analysis for the Central and the East, all that remains is the West. I don't see the West changing all that dramatically. Texas will continue to excel - even without the presence of Vladimir Guerrero and Cliff Lee, Oakland will continue to rock the pitching (and only the pitching), the Angels have the bats but their rotation isn't as strong as it needs to be, and Seattle just sucks.

2010 Records

Texas Rangers: 90 - 72
Oakland Athletics: 81 - 81
Los Angeles Angels: 80 - 82
Seattle Mariners: 61 - 101

1st. Texas Rangers

The Rangers are coming off their first trip to the World Series. Their team is loaded with talent, and now more confident than ever. Feliz is coming off a rookie of the year award, and if he avoids the sophomore slump, look for him to be among the top pitchers in the league. In 2010, the Rangers scored the most runs of any team not in the AL East. Only Oakland and Tampa Bay had a better team ERA. This team will be a contender again this year - with their young guns filling the holes left by Guerrero and Lee.

2nd. Oakland Athletics

The Athletics will be competitive this year. They have a great young pitching staff (top in the AL), and they might see an improvement in their offense. Their pitching staff should only improve - and some of their pitchers could be great trade chips. This team will be good, and may even compete for a wild-card spot, but don't look for any miracles. This year.

3rd. Los Angeles Angels

The Angels won't see a whole lot of change from last year. This organization is getting old, but the management is doing things to improve. Torii Hunter has been moved out of center to give room for top prospect Peter Bourjos. Morales should return soon for the Angels, but I don't see him being enough to add 10+ wins to for the Angels. In what is surprisingly becoming a competitive division (minus Seattle), the Angels won't have the tools to come out on top.

4th. Seattle Mariners

What to say? 101 losses in 2010. The worst run production in the Major Leagues, finishing with 513 runs scored. They scored 74 fewer runs than the next team on the list, the Pirates. They scored more than 200 fewer runs than the American League average. That's just awful. Their pitching did pretty well last year, but with run production this low, they just don't stand a chance. Hope for at least some improvement. They can't get much worse.

Road to Recovery

Spring training offers a chance for many young players to get some time in the bigs. For others, it is a chance to get back into the game. Let's take a look at some of this year's stars returning from injury.

Grady Sizemore - The Indians superstar had an off year last year. He managed to play in only 33 games. But he's on track to return this year after surgery on his knee. Sizemore isn't going to be the piece that puts the Indians back into the playoff hunt, but Sizemore is as good of a candidate as any to be comeback player of the year.

Justin Morneau - This guy was sidelined with a concussion for EIGHT MONTHS. While playing on a concussion is never a good idea, eight months is (correct me if I'm wrong) the longest concussion related absence I've seen in a good many years. Morneau was side-lined half-way through an MVP season last year. If he stays healthy, the Twins will take off.

Kendry Morales - Morales was injured in a walk-off freak accident. After suffering a broken leg last year, Morales hopes to be a big part of a return to dominance for the Angels. Expect him back around opening day.

Johan Santana - The oft injured Santana is hoping to return to action sometime this season. A return to CY form would be great for a desperate Mets team. Santana could provide some stability to a New York team that hasn't seen the success it was supposed to.

Zack Greinke - How did that happen? Out of the blue, Greinke was reported to have broken a rib. This will keep him out of the opening day lineup, but thankfully for Brewers fans, he'll return to action before long.

Worth mentioning - Adrian Beltre, Chase Utley, Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan, Adrian Gonzalez and others are currently side-lined with "minor" injuries. Expect these guys to be back in time for opening day. Regardless, these players are all on teams that will be able to survive without them. It is most important for them to be able to play later in the season. They'll be needed then.

And finally, Stephen Strasburg. Last year, Strasburg broke into the majors with flair. And then he got injured. The Nationals did absolutely everything they could to keep him from getting injured. But shit happens, and it happened to a team that really can't afford to get any worse. Strasburg is set to return late this year or next year. And when he does, expect Harper, Werth, Espinosa, Zimmerman and more to be waiting for him. Strasburg's return from injury be an omen of good things to come D.C.

Spring Training Surprises

As the first round of cuts nears, here are a few players that may just stay on a bit longer.

Honorable Mention: Matt Dominguez

This guy has been having a great spring. 2 hrs, 10 rbis, and a .314 avg in just 19 at bats. He certainly looks like the 3B the Marlins will want in the future. His fielding is superb, and his batting seems to be finally getting there. Problem is, the Marlins organization may want this 21 year old to spend a bit more time in the minors, at least until the questions about his consistency at the plate go away. Infante will be playing second base for the Marlins, so once he's ready, there'll be a spot for this up and comer.

5th. Danny Espinosa

Espinosa was strong when he joined the club last year, and certainly looked to be the SS of the future for the Nationals. But he tapered off as the year came to a close, going from rookie phenom to maybe next year. Well, next year is just about here, and he's back at it this spring. With a .407 avg, 2 hrs and 11 rbis, expect to see this guy in the opening day line-up. It doesn't hurt that he plays for an awful team.

4th. Bartolo Colon

Colon used to be one of the best pitchers in the Major Leagues. The Yankees picked him up out of sheer desperation. No one really expected him to be good. His spring stats aren't fantastic, but they're good enough for him to make this list. Colon hasn't pitched a full season since he won the CY Young award in 2005. The Yankees desperately need him to have a comeback year or they may just be watching from home come October. With a .300 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, Colon might just be able to fill a gaping hole in the Yankees team.

3rd. Luke Hughes

Hughes debuted strong with the Twins, but got injured not long after. With the loss of Nick Punto, Hughes is in the running to fill a spot as a utility infielder. With Twins manager electing to go with oft-troubled Alexi Casilla at second base, Hughes won't get a starting job out of camp. But his 3 hrs, .370 avg, and 10 rbis will make him a prime candidate to replace Casilla should Casilla have yet another poor showing.

2nd. Andy Dirks

Another AL Central player, Andy Dirks is having a surprising spring. He has yet to make the bigs, but with a .483 avg and .559 obp, he's making a case to stay with the Tigers for a bit longer. Unfortunately for Dirks, the Tigers already have a stellar young left fielder in Brennan Boesch. If the Tigers start to have injury problems, don't count this guy out. Dirks could end up playing with the Tigers or another MLB team before year's end.

1st. Lonnie Chisenhall

Chisenhall is batting an impressive .524 for the Indians this spring. He's also hit 2 home runs in just 21 at bats. This Indians team is downright awful, and if they're front office has any brains at all, its time for Chisenhall to see some big league time. This kid was listed among MLB.com's top 50 prospects, and at only 22 years of age, he has plenty of time to grow into the Indians 3B of the future. His biggest obstacle, Jayson Nix, has batted .105 this spring. While this is no indication of big league success (or lack thereof), Nix's career .215 big league average certainly is.

Division Picks Part II

Having covered the East, let's move to the AL Central. This division looks as strong as it has been in years. The Twins, White Sox, and the Tigers are all expected to be good enough to compete for a playoff spot. The Indians and the Royals... well, there's always next year. Off-season additions have changed the look of some of these teams.

2010 Records:

Minnesota: 94-68
Chicago: 88-74
Detroit: 81-81
Cleveland: 69-93
Kansas City: 67-95

1st. Minnesota
Sorry White Sox, I just don't see this team giving up its hold on the division title. The Twins didn't have an incredibly exciting off-season, but they did add Tsuyoshi Nishioka to fill a much needed hole in the middle infield. With Mauer, Morneau, Thome, Young, etc. in the lineup, its basically a question of staying healthy. This team is returning ALL of its starters from last year. With a team ERA of under 4, I can only see this rotation improving. The only question about the Twins is the bullpen. They lost Fuentes, Guerrier, and Crain. That being said, Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan are both having stellar springs after returning from injury,. The Twins can always drop their sixth starter into the bullpen or trade him away (the Blue Jays have shown interest in swapping bullpen pitchers for Kevin Slowey). This Twins team is looking strong.

2nd. Chicago
The White Sox won big picking up Adam Dunn. But is he going to be the piece that pushes them over the top? The White Sox have pitching (94 QS last year, one of the best numbers in the AL), and they have strength in batting, but they haven't really been able to put it all together. So will Adam Dunn make them better than the Twins? NO. Last year Dunn posted a 3.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). On the other hand, the Twins will essentially be adding Morneau to their lineup (assuming he stays healthy). Morneau posted a ridiculous 5.3 WAR in just HALF of a season (numbers are from fangraphs). A healthy Morneau trumps Dunn easily. The White Sox will make it interesting, then probably pull their typical end of the season choke.

3rd. Detroit
Detroid added bullpen help in Benoit and a bat in Victor Martinez. Again, it won't be enough to tip the balances. The Tigers still have some problems with their starting rotation and pitching as a whole. Their team ERA last year was 4.30. This team needs more than Benoit to put them on the track to winning. Finishing last year with a .500 record, this team will most likely improve. But until they fix their starting pitching woes (they had fewer quality starts than Baltimore last year), they won't go far.

4th. Kansas City
If KC's prospects are still in KC five years from now, expect some playoff runs. Right now this is the best young team in the league. They have a future. Assuming the Yankees don't buy it from them (that's a really really dangerous assumption). Right now, KC needs to give its young guys some playing time. They're not going to compete this year, or maybe even not next year, but if they play their cards right, this team could become a real playoff threat. Sadly though, KC's front office is terrible, and they are as cheap as it gets (except when it comes to Gil Meche, go figure). Enjoy fantasizing about next year. And the next year... and the next year...

5th. Cleveland
I'm not really sure what Cleveland is hoping for. They definitely need Grady Sizemore to return from a down year, and they also need their young guys to step up. But Cleveland has a knack for trading away its best players (C.C., Lee, etc.) and not getting a whole lot in return. At least not in immediate return... The Indians have been rebuilding for a while. Don't expect anything to change anytime soon.

Bottom Line: The Twins are hoping Justin Morneau returns to full time action. With a bunch of superstars returning from injury, look for this team to actually win a series in October. If Mauer and Morneau stay healthy, expect another MVP award to come their way .Take your pick who - Morneau's coming off an 8 month concussion, Mauer off of a down year (yes, I did just call .327 a down year). The Sox will be good, just not good enough. Expect them to pull out a wild-card finish. The Rays and the Yankees will protest, but pitching woes are going to sink their ships. This one will be close though. Game 163 anyone?

More Morneau

Great news for Twins fans, bad news for the rest of the AL Central. Morneau appears to have FINALLY recovered from his concussion. He was cleared by his doctors to play in today's Twins B game. He went 1-2 with a 3 run double in 4 innings on the field. The Twins believe he will make his first Grapefruit league appearance on Thursday when the Twins fittingly face the Blue Jays. Having had 8 months to recover from his concussion, there doesn't seem to be any reason why Morneau wouldn't be at 100%. With Delmon Young scheduled to return to action soon, Liriano slated to pitch tomorrow against the Orioles, and both Nathan and Neshek having strong springs - this team suddenly doesn't look as banged up as before. If Justin can return to MVP form, this team will be one to watch.

My Division Picks

Over the next few days I'll be taking a look at each division in baseball - I thought I'd start with the AL East.

2010 Records:

Tampa Bay Rays: 96-66
New York Yankees: 95-67
Boston Red Sox: 89-73
Toronto Blue Jays: 85-77
Baltimore Orioles: 66-96

This division is going to be the most competitive in baseball. The Red Sox have made enormous off-season additions in Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. The Yankees are well, the Yankees. They have a tough road ahead of them, but you never know. The Rays lost Matt Garza and Carl Crawford, but still have it in them to win. The Blue Jays found some offense last year, but are still lacking the pitching it takes to win in October. The Orioles have some momentum from last year, and are a strong young team. Still, no one (including myself) sees them pulling out a playoff spot. So here are my picks:

1st. Boston Red Sox

Everyone seems to be picking the Red Sox, and they should be. The Sox are going to be an offensive machine. With Crawford, Gonzalez, Ortiz, Pedroia, Youkilis, etc. this team is going to be putting up big numbers. There pitching is strong, but it doesn't really matter. This team is going to be scoring a lot of runs. Barring a complete collapse of the pitching staff, look to Boston to take this tough division.

2nd. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays aren't getting the attention they deserve. Yes, they lost Crawford and Garza, but this team will still compete. Look to David Price and Jeremy Hellickson to anchor this young pitching staff. Strong pitching should make up for the loss of some offense. The addition of Damon and Ramirez will push this team up from the middle of the pack. If Ramirez has a strong year, this team might have some success in October. Regardless, I don't see them topping the Red Sox.

3rd. New York Yankees

Any year where the Yankees don't make the playoffs is an unusual one. But some big money blunders will make this the year. Jeter's charisma will not make up for his inability to field his position (if anyone thinks he deserved that gold glove...), and his offense is steadily taking a turn for the worse. Rafael Soriano is a great pitcher, but the Yankees need starting pitching, not a closer. Unless Bartolo Colon miraculously pulls off a return to CY form, the Yankees pitching staff just isn't going to cut it. Sorry New York.

4th. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays will post a winning record, but in the AL East, that just won't cut it. The Blue Jays went homer happy last year. They will still be posting big numbers this year, but keeping pace with last year is a bit of a stretch. Inconsistency and lack of depth in pitching will keep this team from making it to the top.

5th. Baltimore Orioles

This team is young, and they have a lot of momentum coming off of last season. Buck Showalter's team has potential. But they're playing in MLB's toughest division. It wouldn't shock me to see them put up a record above .500 and even finish ahead of the Blue Jays. But in a division filled with playoff-caliber teams, they just don't stand a chance. Even so, with Vladdy in the mix, these youngsters could grow up fast. The Orioles are this division's dark horse. Don't look for them to win the division, but a fast start could make this division even more interesting.

World Series Rematch

If you like baseball and haven't been living under a rock, you've probably heard about tonight's World Series rematch. That being said, it is still spring training, and picking spring training games is a crapshoot at best. If you're like me and desperate for any baseball - this will be an interesting game to watch. I'm not going to take a side on this one, but this guy will.

The Time is Near

It has been a long four months for all who love baseball, and the wait is almost over. For those who happen to reside in Arizona or Florida (or on the internet), baseball is already here! If you're not a Giants fan, it is time to get excited for a new season that hopefully won't end in watching Brian Wilson close out the Fall Classic. If you are... Well, you still have a little bit longer to revel in your triumph. To everyone who calls themselves a baseball fan, here's to a great season! In the meantime, check out these baseball raps.