Over the next few days I'll be taking a look at each division in baseball - I thought I'd start with the AL East.
2010 Records:
Tampa Bay Rays: 96-66
New York Yankees: 95-67
Boston Red Sox: 89-73
Toronto Blue Jays: 85-77
Baltimore Orioles: 66-96
This division is going to be the most competitive in baseball. The Red Sox have made enormous off-season additions in Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. The Yankees are well, the Yankees. They have a tough road ahead of them, but you never know. The Rays lost Matt Garza and Carl Crawford, but still have it in them to win. The Blue Jays found some offense last year, but are still lacking the pitching it takes to win in October. The Orioles have some momentum from last year, and are a strong young team. Still, no one (including myself) sees them pulling out a playoff spot. So here are my picks:
1st. Boston Red Sox
Everyone seems to be picking the Red Sox, and they should be. The Sox are going to be an offensive machine. With Crawford, Gonzalez, Ortiz, Pedroia, Youkilis, etc. this team is going to be putting up big numbers. There pitching is strong, but it doesn't really matter. This team is going to be scoring a lot of runs. Barring a complete collapse of the pitching staff, look to Boston to take this tough division.
2nd. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays aren't getting the attention they deserve. Yes, they lost Crawford and Garza, but this team will still compete. Look to David Price and Jeremy Hellickson to anchor this young pitching staff. Strong pitching should make up for the loss of some offense. The addition of Damon and Ramirez will push this team up from the middle of the pack. If Ramirez has a strong year, this team might have some success in October. Regardless, I don't see them topping the Red Sox.
3rd. New York Yankees
Any year where the Yankees don't make the playoffs is an unusual one. But some big money blunders will make this the year. Jeter's charisma will not make up for his inability to field his position (if anyone thinks he deserved that gold glove...), and his offense is steadily taking a turn for the worse. Rafael Soriano is a great pitcher, but the Yankees need starting pitching, not a closer. Unless Bartolo Colon miraculously pulls off a return to CY form, the Yankees pitching staff just isn't going to cut it. Sorry New York.
4th. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays will post a winning record, but in the AL East, that just won't cut it. The Blue Jays went homer happy last year. They will still be posting big numbers this year, but keeping pace with last year is a bit of a stretch. Inconsistency and lack of depth in pitching will keep this team from making it to the top.
5th. Baltimore Orioles
This team is young, and they have a lot of momentum coming off of last season. Buck Showalter's team has potential. But they're playing in MLB's toughest division. It wouldn't shock me to see them put up a record above .500 and even finish ahead of the Blue Jays. But in a division filled with playoff-caliber teams, they just don't stand a chance. Even so, with Vladdy in the mix, these youngsters could grow up fast. The Orioles are this division's dark horse. Don't look for them to win the division, but a fast start could make this division even more interesting.
Baseball Prospectus projections are pretty much consistent with what you've got to say, but they're a lot higher on the Yankees and lower on the Rays than you are. Do you really think the Rays can survive despite losing pretty much their entire bullpen with the loss of Soriano and Benoit among others? How do you think they'll overcome that?
ReplyDeleteThe Yankees and the Rays both have some pitching issues. First, starters are key. In terms of an ace, you've got David Price against C.C. Sabathia. C.C. is established, but Price is young and dominant. I'm giving him the edge. After Sabathia, NY rotation looks pretty bad... Burnett as your number two? Going 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA... ouch. While the Rays may not have the Yanks bullpen, they have plenty of starting pitching.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, both teams need to improve their pitching to truly contend. The Yankees improve by going out and buying. Problem is, the market is thin. They're going to need to spend big to get a starting pitcher. The Rays on the other hand have had success grooming their own pitchers. They may not have the big names like the Yankees, but I suspect they'll be able to piece it together. These same issues were raised last year when Minnesota's bullpen fell apart with the injuries to Nathan and Neshek. Yet Bill Smith and Rick Anderson were able to hold the bullpen together.
Bottom line - A bullpen is easier to piece together than a starting rotation. The Yankees overworked bullpen might just fall apart too.